Crosbie E, Glantz SA. The tobacco industry argues that national trademark laws and international contracts exclude warning labels for cigarettes, although the argument that the argument is invalid is systematically followed. Tob control. 2014 1.23.2014:e7. For Zambia, the trends are a little more complex. There is a clear trend towards more intra-African trade (Additional File 6: Fig. S6). Since the closure of BAT`s Zambian production, much of Zambia`s tobacco leaf has been addressed to its African neighbour, Malawi. With tobacco, a relatively new significant mould in Zambia, there is not yet enough infrastructure to treat it, while this capacity is present in Malawi. As has already been said, much of Malawi`s exported tobacco leaf goes to Europe and China, which probably means the same for Zambian tobacco that runs through Malawi. Leaf exports from these countries to the EU benefit directly from the Cotonou agreements, which allow duty-free access to the EU market.
With regard to Zambia`s direct exports of tobacco leaves, there has also been a marked increase to Asia, with more exports to Asia than to Europe, although less than to its neighbours in Africa. Most of Zambia`s direct tobacco leaf exports go to China. The increase in tobacco exports from countries such as Malawi and Zambia to China after 2010 came after China came into force to enter tax-free treatment. It should be noted that exports to South Africa, once a major importer of Sami tobacco, have continued to decline. Krueger A. Why trade liberalization is good for growth. Econ J. 1998 Sept 1;108 (450):1513-22. In conclusion, trade and investment agreements mark the behaviour and business models that lead to efficiencies, but these agreements do not appear to have a significant and systematic impact on price and/or accessibility. The efficiency gains made by the tobacco industry through trade and investment liberalization do not directly lead to a higher affordable price, but almost certainly increase the profits of these enterprises. For example, according to the 2010 and 2011 MTD annual reports, results in Africa and the Middle East increased by 18.5% and 17%, respectively, due to growth in volumes and market share in countries such as South Africa, Nigeria and Egypt [74, 75].
Future research should continue to point to specific paths for trade liberalization to shape the tobacco market. Faced with this complex reality, and on the basis of our analysis, it is clear that excise measures remain an essential strategy to increase the price of cigarettes and reduce affordability. The tobacco industry, facilitated by trade agreements, has strengthened its presence within the SSA. Empirical studies have shown that this is linked to greater interference in policy-making through intensive lobbying by officials and stakeholders, preventive measures and manipulation of legislative proposals to prevent the implementation of anti-smoking measures [18, 27, 71]. It will also be important to examine how trade agreements can shape the political environment for anchoring tobacco production in SSAs.